• Markets were eagerly tuned into the data this week to assess the impact of falling confidence on the economic recovery.
• The first hard data release of the month revealed that the U.S. economy created no new jobs during August. While this number is slightly better when we account for the impact of striking workers and exclude ongoing declines in public sector employment, it hardly inspires confidence in the U.S. economy.
• Manufacturing activity also softened in August. While the ISM Manufacturing survey signals the sector continues to grow, falling orders and production tell a different story.
• Data were released showing Canada’s economy contracted in the second quarter of this year, but came as no surprise to markets who had expected a poor turnout based on the monthly data.
• Q2 weakness was concentrated in net exports, and we do not expect another decline in Q3. That said, the second half of the year should see a fairly lackluster pace of growth of around 1.5%.
• This overall weakness should see the Bank of Canada hold its overnight rate at 1.00% at next Wednesday’s rate announcement. But the dramatic developments since the last statement in July should see a very dovish tone. Expect to find the theme of lower for longer to prevail.
So far the economic situation is keeping mortgage rates at a low. The time is now to work on fixing your real estate and mortgage portfolio with low mortgage raqtes. Right now my firm can get you a 5 year fixed for 3.17% and if you buy a home with one of my approved realtors you can get 5 year fixed for 3.09%.